When Roger Federer took a 5-1 lead in the first set of Friday afternoon’s men’s semifinal at the Sony Ericsson Open, Novak Djokovic had the look of a man bereft of confidence. Less than two hours later, however, the beaten man in Miami stood on the opposite side of the net.

In a collapse of notable proportions, an unfocused Federer came apart at the seams, while Djokovic used smart, high-percentage tennis to cruise to a 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 victory, which pushes the No. 3 seed into Sunday’s final against Andy Murray or Juan Martin Del Potro. Djokovic not only won his third career match against the second-seeded Swiss; the Serb overcame a sluggish first set to receive a fresh injection of belief.

There’s a lot of tennis left in 2009, with three of the four Grand Slams still to come. With that said, this is a match that could certainly reshape the calculus of the ATP tour in the months ahead. Djokovic looked whipped in Australia and Indian Wells, and when the 21-year-old stumbled out of the gate on a windy afternoon, it appeared that another tame exit was in store for a talented yet unsettled performer. The world-class tennis that marked Djokovic’s 2008 ascendancy was rarely seen in recent months, and quite frankly, it didn’t emerge that much today against Federer. Yet, the mental toughness shown in this three-set triumph could very well give the Belgrade native the kick-start he so desperately needed.

As for Federer, the outlook is 180 degrees different.

This disastrously unglued performance against a more-than-beatable opponent (Federer entered this match with a 7-2 record against Djokovic) not only deprives the world No. 2 of another Masters 1000 title (the last such event Fed won came in August of 2007 at Cincinnati); far more alarmingly, the setback revealed a persistent lack of concentration that has plagued the fabled champion over the past year.

Indeed, the biggest story to emerge from this match–as significant as it may be for Djokovic–is the way in which Federer crumbled after taking the first set in relatively comfortable fashion. Instead of maintaining a solid level of performance, which was all he needed to get the quick lead, Federer simply couldn’t keep the ball in the stadium court at the Crandon Park Tennis Center. Federer exceeded 30 unforced errors in the final two sets, as his once-trusty forehand betrayed him again and again. The down-the-line forehand to the ad corner repeatedly sailed a foot beyond the baseline, irritating Federer and shocking a Miami crowd that was expecting better tennis.

Things got so bad for the 13-time Grand Slam champion that after a netted forehand approach at 0-2 in the third set, Federer smashed his racket, the kind of development that plagued a much younger man in the volatile teenage years that preceded a rise to tennis greatness. Federer became disturbed in a manner so unfamiliar to anyone who has followed professional tennis over the past several seasons. That’s why this match will be a discussion topic for much of 2009, especially if future results continue to cut against Mr. Federer.

Why should this match remain on the minds of tennis scribes and pundits? It was somewhat surprising that Djokovic won this match after the Serb’s tame first-set effort, but what was supremely shocking about this semifinal is that the match didn’t even possess a dramatic conclusion. Federer didn’t just lose; he lost without making Djokovic fight to the finish line. That fact–combined with the shocking display of equipment abuse–will leave analysts and armchair psychologists talking for a good long while about the mental world inhabited by Federer. The man who once ruled the tennis world with unmatched grace and soaring confidence has been confined to an increasingly distant past. The new Federer, who has been usurped by Rafael Nadal, is a more fragile creature whose form and focus disappear just as quickly as they emerge.

Federer’s competitive juices and big-point instincts were on display in Wednesday’s ballsy quarterfinal escape against Andy Roddick, but in this joust with Djokovic, Fed’s ability to grind and compete simply never entered the building over the last two desultory sets. Perhaps Federer is simply too focused on Grand Slams at this stage of his career for other events–even this significant Miami tournament–to matter all that much. Then again, Federer hasn’t had to wrestle with mononucleosis the way he did in 2008. If Federer rebounds at the French Open and Wimbledon, this match will be forgotten, but if this Swiss superstar continues to wobble the same way he did on a foul Friday, there’s little question that this South Florida freefall will be remembered as a sharp downward turning point in one of the greatest careers of all time.

Buckle up, tennis fans. The next few months of clay-court action and Wimbledon combat have just gotten even more interesting. If Roger Federer expects to tie Pete Sampras’s record, he’ll have to dial down the drama and ratchet up his level of focus. That much is certain… even to a man who must be supremely baffled by the way he played today.

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