For the second time in the past month, Djokovic felled Federer in a Masters 1000 semifinal by overcoming a one-set deficit against the 13-time Grand Slam champion. A 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 win over Federer on Saturday at the Foro Italico catapulted Djokovic into the finals of the Rome Masters. In Sunday’s championship match, the No. 3 seed will play top-rated Rafael Nadal, a 6-3, 6-3 winner over No. 12 Fernando Gonzalez.

Djokovic’s tennis season–which looked to be in tatters just seven weeks ago–is now experiencing a modest but real renaissance. Djokovic might not be winning tournaments, but this triumph over Federer allows the Belgrade native to boast of a third straight appearance in a Masters 1000 final. This string of strong performances has been built on the back of improved mental toughness from Djokovic, and no two matches have revealed the Serb’s competitive grit more than his pair of recent wins against Federer, a man still looking for a fresh injection of swagger.

In Miami, Monte Carlo, and now Rome, Djokovic has played his way to the final Sunday of the tournament. In Monte Carlo, Djokovic did have to beat a Swiss foe in the semis, but that was Stanislas Wawrinka. In Miami and in Rome, the path to a Masters final has taken Djokovic through Federer, a personal nemesis who entered 2009 with a 7-2 record in head-to-head matchups. It’s hard enough to beat a player of Federer’s stature; it’s even more difficult to do so when history looms as a burden, a reminder of past defeats. After bowing out of the Australian Open due to heat exhaustion, and then getting crushed in the Indian Wells quarters by Andy Roddick, it appeared that 2009 was going to be a long and unsuccessful campaign for Djokovic. When he took on Federer a month ago in Miami, little evidence existed to suggest that this enigmatic performer would reassert himself as a force on the ATP Tour. But on that Friday afternoon in Florida, the seeds of a revival were sown for the one nicknamed “Nole.”

After dropping a dismal first set to Federer on the hardcourts of Miami, Djokovic steadied his mind, competed admirably, won a few tense multi-deuce games to swing momentum, and ultimately prevailed in three sets, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3. Djokovic didn’t play particularly inspired tennis that day, and the Serb lost the final to Andy Murray two days later, but a larger benefit clearly emerged from the end of his American hardcourt swing: Djokovic realized that he could win without his best stuff as long as he competed relentlessly. Losing the first set–even to Roger Federer–would not be cause to fold up the tent and quietly absorb another beating.

Fast forward a month later to the red dirt of Stadio Pietrangeli, and it’s clear that Djokovic, now on European clay, has retained the lessons imparted to him in Miami.

As was the case in their previous meeting, Federer and Djokovic staged a drama in which the Swiss took the first set and created a context in which the Serb’s level of resolve would be tested. While it’s true that the level of tennis displayed in this match far exceeded anything the two men produced in Miami, the same basic dynamic still applied: Federer landed the first punch, making it imperative for Djokovic to stand in the ring, grind out points, and hang around long enough for the tide to turn.

Federer might have a stack of tremendous achievements to his name, but the credentialed champion has nevertheless betrayed signs of fragile confidence, inconsistent focus, and surprisingly vulnerable nerves at this advanced stage of his career. The old Federer produced blowouts the moment the finish line emerged, but this latest incarnation of Fed has shown that he will give opponents opportunities to climb back into matches. When Federer took a 6-4, 2-0 lead against Djokovic in Italy’s capital city, the percentages naturally aligned with the Swiss superstar, but the competition was hardly over. The same Federer who once ruled tennis with merciless ease is not the same man in 2009, his career trajectory changed by Rafael Nadal, his life direction altered by marriage and impending fatherhood. The compelling drama of professional tennis is that even the best players have to maintain form through numerous off-court distractions and the many life-changing events that naturally emerge in private spheres of activity. For a time, a great champion will enjoy perfect serenity and competitive focus whenever he (or she) steps on the court, but life being what it is, an interruption of pure clarity will inevitably surface. This fact of tennis life, combined with the wear and tear of the tour, will erode the consistency of everyone before too long… even the consistency of a legend such as Federer. The No. 2 seed might have enjoyed a set-and-a-break lead against Djokovic, but Federer still had work to do.

This is where Djokovic’s rediscovered tenacity came prominently into play.

On other days in the past–as in the 2008 Monte Carlo semifinals, when he retired against Federer–Djokovic might have allowed an even more frail mindset to sabotage his competitive will, which burns deeply, but sometimes too hot. On this afternoon, however, the Serb showed the determination of a true Roman warrior. He fended off a break point at 0-2, 30-40 in the second set, which would have given Federer a double-break lead and a firm grip on the match. After a rain delay, Djokovic saved another break point when trailing 1-3, 30-40. Twice on the ropes, Djokovic got out of jail, and suddenly, the third seed–though trailing by a set and a break–began to feel as though a comeback was entirely possible. The tone and tenor of the match turned, and Federer seemed to feel this as much as anyone else in Stadio Pietrangeli.

Serving at 3-2 in the second set, Federer was abruptly broken after seven straight holds without facing so much as a single break point. Djokovic used that moment to fuel a surge in forward momentum, as the Serb reeled off five straight games to capture the second set, 6-3. Precisely because he didn’t concede points when trailing decisively on the scoreboard, Djokovic forced Federer to maintain a very high level, and when the Swiss slipped, the match changed in an instant.

What was even more remarkable about this match, however, is the way the third set unfolded. Instead of maintaining the mojo that carried him through the second set, Djokovic let down his guard and displayed unsettled body language in the early stages of the third stanza. Federer stabilized his balky first serve and, with Djokovic spraying a number of errors, took another 3-1 lead, just like the second set. Having blown a chance to take the match in straight sets, Federer was given another chance to close the door on Nole.

Instead, the Joker would have the last laugh, again due to his unquenchable and dogged insistence on making Federer-Djokovic something other than a lopsided head-to-head matchup. For the second consecutive set, Djokovic–aided by Federer’s increasingly faulty forehand and some magnificent defense of his own–won five straight games to capture another 6-3 set. If lightning rarely strikes twice in the same place, this day was an exception, and when all was said and done, Novak Djokovic was holding the thunderbolt, armed with the power of knowing that a former nemesis is now his inferior, especially on the red clay of his home continent. Roger Federer used to be the second-best claycourt performer in the world, but now that distinction belongs to a Serbian standout.

It’s amazing what one month–and two Masters semifinals–can do to shape the nature of a career. For Djokovic, first-set losses to a hallowed champion have lost their sting. Such a reality–though hard to imagine at the start of 2009–has clearly reshaped the landscape of men’s tennis… and the outlook of a gifted player who has reclaimed his fighting spirit.

****

WTA Update – Porsche Tennis Grand Prix – Stuttgart

Saturday’s Semifinal Scores:

(1) Dinara Safina d. Flavia Pennetta, 3-6, 7-5, 6-0

(5) Svetlana Kuznetsova d. (2) Elena Dementieva, 6-4, 6-2

Related Posts

• Dead-End Fed: Steady Djokovic profits from Federer meltdown, advances to final
• Climbing the Mountain Again: Novak Djokovic fights back, advances to semis
• A King and a Joker in Monte Carlo: Nadal, Djokovic advance to final

Nadal is not a graybeard in his sport, but the lethal lefty is quickly compiling the portfolio of an all-time legend. Toni Nadal’s prize pupil won the Rome Masters–formerly called the Italian Open–for a record fourth time on Sunday, defeating Novak Djokovic, 7-6 (2), 6-2, in a final that featured uneven but feisty tennis. The world No. 1 now owns his fifth ATP title of 2009, a 30-match claycourt winning streak, and–in the bigger picture–a body of work that is steadily eclipsing his most storied predecessors.

Bjorn Borg couldn’t conquer Rome on four separate occasions. Neither did other claycourt stars of the Open Era, such as Guillermo Vilas and Ivan Lendl. This victory over the gallant but ultimately inferior Djokovic allowed Nadal to surpass Austrian dirtballer Thomas Muster (owner of the 1990, 1995, and 1996 Italian Open titles) as the greatest male tennis player in the history of the Foro Italico, the facility that has hosted the Rome championships since 1935 (the event began in Milan in 1930). Week by week, Nadal just keeps gobbling up trophies on the terre battue of Europe. This steady stream of triumphant Sunday moments–complete with 1,000-point ATP rankings bonanzas and maximum-size paychecks–is only making it harder to ignore the notion that Nadal is the best claycourt player in the history of men’s tennis. That’s no small thing to say about a young man who is still a month shy of his 23rd birthday. What’s even more remarkable, however, is that such a statement is worth taking seriously.

To put this latest Rome win in perspective for Nadal, the first thing that needs to be said is that Rafa prevailed against the man who–at least for now–has vaulted past Roger Federer as the world’s second-best claycourt competitor. In past claycourt swings through the European continent, it was Federer who normally opposed Nadal in Masters finals. This year, Djokovic has become the man standing in the way of more Nadal titles on crushed red brick. The 21-year-old Serb was there to make Rafa fight for the Monte Carlo crown on April 19, as Djokovic took a set from the king of clay before falling in three. On Sunday at Stadio Pietrangeli, Djokovic–infused with a new dose of competitive cockiness–had once again earned the right to deny Nadal a piece of history. The best player on the planet might have been the favorite as he took the court, but the third-seeded Serb on the other side of the net possessed the game–and the grit–needed to author a different narrative. Nadal would have to beat a thoroughly worthy opponent in order to win more laurels. That much was clear even before this match began.

When mortal combat commenced on stadium court in Rome, a few amazing moments suggested that–for a few brief but emotionally charged minutes–an upset was entirely possible.

Nadal served for the first set at 5-4, only for Djokovic–fresh from his improbable comeback win over Federer in Saturday’s semifinals–to break back for 5-all. When Nadal then returned the favor to gain a 6-5 lead, everyone in the crowd except for those flying Serbian flags (and even some of them might have had their doubts) had to think that the first set would go to the Spaniard who has ruled tennis with an iron fist since the spring of 2008. When Nadal–given a second chance to serve out the set–gained a 30-love lead, the matter seemed to be a foregone conclusion.

Djokovic, though, would not concede the issue.

The Serb battled to 30-all, and then engaged his opponent in a classic duel-at-ten-paces exchange near the net. Djokovic hit a sharp backhand volley that gave himself a brief bit of leverage, but a stunning reaction from Nadal produced a stab forehand volley winner that gave the Mallorcan a set point. It was hard enough to beat the king of clay in any circumstance; to overcome a demoralizing loss of a point at 5-6, 30-all would require more mental stamina than most mortals possess.

Djokovic–at least for the time being–owned that extra dimension of willpower.

The Serb, pushed to the brink, responded on the ensuing set point by knifing away another crosscourt backhand volley to fight to deuce. Djokovic then won yet another highlight-reel point by retrieving a drop shot with an authoritative angled backhand winner. Given a break point by his remarkable display of poise, Djokovic earned a tiebreak when Nadal mishit a backhand.

It was improbable, but it had come to pass: Novak Djokovic watched Rafael Nadal serve twice for the first set; watched the Spaniard gain a 30-love lead in the twelfth game of the set; and watched the Mallorcan win an epic point to earn a set point. Yet, in spite of all those deficits and setbacks, the bulldog from Belgrade always dug in his heels. The reward for such uncommon determination was a first-set tiebreak. Just a few more winning points, and Djokovic would legitimately have plunged Rafa into a state of deep and alarming concern.

Just when the first set finally appeared winnable, however, Djokovic’s airtight focus in pressure-cooker situations abruptly vanished. A number of missed drop shots and sprayed backhands by the world No. 3 (who, upon losing the match, fell behind Andy Murray to the No. 4 spot in the ATP rankings) allowed Nadal to claim the tiebreak without much trouble, and win a set that was in danger of slipping away. Djokovic had climbed many mountains, only to lose the plot amidst the tension of the tiebreak.

Once Nadal surmounted that unexpectedly tall hurdle, the second set unfolded with a smaller amount of drama. Djokovic fought tooth and nail through the first four games of the set, but at 2-2, the Serb’s serve was broken… as was his will. Djokovic needed to become a front-runner for the rest of the match, after falling behind against tennis’s most ruthless closer. Therefore, when Nadal broke for a 3-2 lead in the second stanza, the Italian crowd’s dip in energy conveyed the truth everyone could apprehend: Nadal just wasn’t losing this match, and his increasingly powerful grip on men’s claycourt tennis. “El Rey de Clay,” once in possession of that one-break lead, reeled off three more games in succession to put a quick end to the confrontation. Djokovic couldn’t complain about another strong showing, another Masters final, and another semifinal slaying of Mr. Federer. In the end, though, only Rafa Nadal could bask in the glow of another enormous accomplishment.

Two formidable competitors contested the Rome Masters on a sun-kissed Sunday afternoon. Only one of those men, however, was able to match the moment. Nadal’s win–as valuable as it is within the more narrow context of claycourt tennis–also allowed the Mallorcan to win his 15th Masters shield, surpassing Federer for second on the all-time list. Only Andre Agassi (17 Masters titles) owns more of these lustrous championships.

It’s simply becoming plainer by the week: Rafael Nadal, on the heels of yet another significant title, is in full command of his sport, on clay and everywhere else. The word “master” truly applies to a special specimen who, though young in years, is crafting a resume that usually takes a decade to create.

*****
WTA Update – Porsche Tennis Grand Prix – Stuttgart

Sunday’s Final

(5) Svetlana Kuznetsova d. (1) Dinara Safina, 6-4, 6-3

Related Posts

• “El Rey de Clay”: Nadal masters Monte Carlo for the fifth straight year
• Colossal Collisions: Quiet day in Rome creates main-event matchups for quarterfinals
• Seeds of Intrigue: Murray’s early exit in Rome has French Open implications

Nadal’s scoreline might have looked pedestrian, but this was no ordinary day at the office. Verdasco showed flashes of the shotmaking that has enabled the No. 6 seed to become a resident of the top 10. A number of four- and five-deuce games caused this straight-setter to last 1 hour and 51 minutes. While other tennis pros will take only 75 minutes for a 3-and-3 match, Nadal had to stand on court for nearly two hours. Spectators in Italy’s capital didn’t get a three-set match, but they did see a spirited competition.

While marked by passionate play, however, this match did not attain high marks in terms of precision. Nadal hit only 6 winners in this match while committing 20 unforced errors. The world No. 1 looked downright mortal at times, allowing unchallenging groundstrokes to fly wide for no real reason. Small lapses in concentration, combined with doses of surprising power from the Verdasco racket, forced Nadal into an overly defensive mode. The best player on the planet stood far beyond the baseline for most of the match, and failed to overwhelm his fellow Spaniard. Based on those realities, one would think that Nadal either gutted out a razor-close three-setter, or lost the match outright.

Not so.

There was just one obstacle that stood in the way of an upset on a day when Nadal lacked his A-game: Verdasco himself.

The 25-year-old underdog, whose left knee nagged him for stretches of the match and worsened in the eighth game of the second set, could not keep the ball in the court. Verdasco might have hit 20 winners on the afternoon at Stadio Pietrangeli, but this “other” Spanish lefty stayed in Nadal’s shadow by spraying 41 unforced errors, many of them on relatively tame, low-pace shots. Verdasco gifted Rafa with far too many cheap points, and as they accumulated, the top dog in tennis was able to settle into a low-risk, high-margin style that–while perhaps a bit cautious–was ultimately justified in a larger context.

One might wonder–in light of the epic match contested by these two men at the Australian Open–why it’s a problem that Verdasco piled up errors along with winners. After all, Verdasco did make 76 errors in January’s sensational Aussie semifinal against Nadal, compared to just 25 errors for the eventual tournament champion Down Under. Why would it be such a problem that Verdasco had so many errors in this match? Didn’t the No. 6 seed hit 14 more winners than his opponent?

The math might seem to suggest that Verdasco’s numbers weren’t problematic, but closer examination indicates otherwise. It’s worth remembering that while Verdasco did hit 51 more errant shots than Nadal did in Australia, the second-best tennis player in Spain also drilled 95 winners that day, good for a plus-19 margin on the winner-error scale. In this Rome rematch, Verdasco’s winner-error margin was minus-21. Perhaps Verdasco could have won with 41 errors, but his winners had to be in the high 30s at the very least, and likely the mid-40s, for an upset to occur. Yes, Nadal might have hit just 6 winners, but with Verdasco donating boatloads of free points, the king of clay–even on an off day–just had to pound his shots deep, make Verdasco run, and wait for a wayward reply.

Verdasco hasn’t been horrible since he maxed out in Australia, but just the same, the world No. 8 (seeded sixth because of Andy Roddick’s absence from the event and the volatility of Gilles Simon’s ranking) hasn’t recaptured the form that carried him within an eyelash of his first Grand Slam final. Verdasco has reached the quarters of every event he’s played since his breakthrough in Oz. The bad news is that Ana Ivanovic’s former boyfriend hasn’t won any of those quarterfinal encounters. It’s back to the drawing board for one Spaniard; this other fellow named Nadal, still rolling through the claycourt season, will take the court for Saturday’s second semifinal against 12th-seeded Chilean Fernando Gonzalez, who defeated Argentine qualifier Juan Monaco, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4, in Friday’s late match.

The day’s other main-event quarterfinal represented a meaningful triumph for a man who already has a Grand Slam title to his name, but lacked a champion’s swagger in recent months. Novak Djokovic seemed to be enduring, and not enjoying, the ATP Tour in the month of March, but his win over Roger Federer in the Miami semifinals seemed to kick-start the Serb just before returning to Europe. Djokovic has regained the winning edge that carried the world No. 3 to the Australian Open 2008 title. He made the finals in Monte Carlo, and now stands just two wins away from defending his Rome championship.

Up against the fifth-seeded del Potro, Djokovic used an effective return game to punish the Argentine’s second serve and establish control from the outset. The one nicknamed “Nole” won this match by claiming 15 of 26 points on del Potro’s second serve. All told, Djokovic broke his opponent three times in nine return games. By winning 65 percent of points on his own second serve, Djokovic earned a spot in yet another Masters semifinal. As was the case one month ago in Miami, Djokovic’s semifinal opponent will be Federer, who played crisply from the backcourt in fighting off the impressive German qualifier Mischa Zverev, 7-6 (3), 6-2.

The more the rest of the ATP Tour takes its shots at the big boys, the more they fail. For yet another weekend, three of the top four names in men’s tennis (Andy Murray being the fourth) are in the semifinals of a Masters event. This pattern played out at Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo, and now it has unfolded in Rome as well. Saturday’s semifinals should be scintillating. Roman rule never felt so good.

****

WTA Scoreboard – Porsche Tennis Grand Prix – Stuttgart

Friday’s Quarterfinal Results (with semifinal pairings)

(2) Elena Dementieva d. Marion Bartoli, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3

(5) Svetlana Kuznetsova d. Gisela Dulko, 6-3, 6-2

(Dementieva vs. Kuznetsova in semifinal #1)

(1) Dinara Safina d. (8) Agnieszka Radwanska, 6-4, 6-2

Flavia Pennetta d. (3) Jelena Jankovic, 2-6, 6-4, 6-4

(Safina vs. Pennetta in semifinal #2)

Related Posts

• Colossal Collisions: Quiet day in Rome creates main-event matchups for quarterfinals
• Nadal looks to join Federer in Australian Open semifinals
• A King and a Joker in Monte Carlo: Nadal, Djokovic advance to final

In the early afternoon session, fifth-seeded Juan Martin del Potro will take on third-seeded Novak Djokovic, the defending champion at this event. Del Potro won his round-of-16 match on Thursday over Switzerland’s Stanislas Wawrinka, 6-2, 6-7 (5), 6-3. The Argentine has has played deep into most of the year’s important tournaments, and is intent on showing the tennis community that his big, lanky frame can move around the court on clay. The one they call “Delpo” is ripening into form largely because his appetite is exceeding his nerves on the big stage. An encounter with the world No. 3 will give this 6-foot-6 giant a chance to cast a long shadow over his competitors in Italy.

Djokovic made his way into the quarters by crushing 13th-seeded Tommy Robredo, 6-1, 6-1. Djokovic has gained a measure of confidence over the past month by reaching prestigious finals at Miami and Monte Carlo. The Serbian star needed match wins to improve his physical fitness and regain the edge that characterized his rise to prominence in the first half of the 2008 tennis season. Now that he’s bagged a few victories in Rome, the 21-year-old will try to chase another trophy at a Masters event. A lot of baseline slugging is in order as two top 5 titans lock horns at the Stadio Pietrangeli center court.

Later in the day, the No. 1 attraction–literally and figuratively–will take center stage, as top-ranked Rafael Nadal will engage in a rematch of the year’s best tennis duel to date. Back in January at the Australian Open, Nadal’s place as the sport’s premier player was threatened in a seminal semifinal, as up-and-coming Fernando Verdasco nearly upset his more credentialed countryman in a 5-hour, 14-minute war. Verdasco held a love-30 lead on Nadal’s serve at 4-all in the final set, but the ever-resourceful Rafa escaped to hold for 5-4 and break for the match in the next game. This rumble in Rome will mark the first Nadal-Verdasco match since that epic encounter in Melbourne, a fact that lends this quarterfinal a championship-like buzz. Nadal steamrolled Sweden’s Robin Soderling on Thursday night, 6-1 and 6-0, while the sixth-seeded Verdasco fought past France’s Richard Gasquet, 7-5, 6-4, to set up the Spanish centerpiece of quarterfinal Friday in Rome.

There you have it, tennis fans: Delpo-Djokovic feels like a semifinal, and Nadal-Verdasco packs the punch of a final. Two quality quarterfinals will satisfy the Roman appetites of ATP Tour fanatics.

****
OTHER THURSDAY SCORES AND NOTES FROM ROME:

(2) Roger Federer d. (16) Radek Stepanek, 6-4, 6-1

Roger Federer avenged a quarterfinal loss to Stepanek at last year’s Rome Masters, punching his own ticket into the final eight. More important than revenge is the fact that this win prevents the second-seeded Swiss from losing a large chunk of rankings points. By defending his quarterfinal showing in Rome, Federer won’t slide closer to world No. 4 Andy Murray, who still has an outside chance of overtaking Federer in the coming weeks for the No. 2 spot and the all-important second seed at the French Open on May 25. Having avoided a significant loss of rankings points, Fed will now try to gain points in his quarterfinal match against qualifier Mischa Zverev.

Mischa Zverev d. (8) Gilles Simon, 6-4, 6-1

While Zverev enjoys a rare appearance in a Masters 1000 quarterfinal, the big news is that Simon’s lost season continues. Simon soared from obscurity to crack the top 10 in 2008, but the early months of 2009 have witnessed steadily declining fortunes for the 24-year-old. A solid quarterfinal showing at the Australian Open has been followed by a lack of impressive results in the year’s first four Masters events. This loss to Zverev means that Simon has failed to register even one quarterfinal appearance at Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, and Rome. Those consistently subpar results won’t cause Simon’s ranking to plummet immediately, but they will force the Frenchman to defend a ton of points in the summer and fall. If Simon doesn’t get going in 2009, he won’t just tumble out of the top 10; he’ll crash out of the top 20.

Juan Monaco d. (15) Marin Cilic, 6-4, 6-4

Monaco reached his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal with this victory. It’s clear that the Argentine is playing with considerable confidence after Wednesday’s takedown of fourth-ranked Andy Murray. Monaco enjoyed a huge 2007 season, climbing from No. 71 to No. 20 in the world rankings, but 2008 set him back. Currently ranked 58th on the tour, Monaco shows signs of returning to prominence in his sport.

(12) Fernando Gonzalez d. Jurgen Melzer, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5

Chile’s best tennis player will take on Monaco in what should be an entertaining quarterfinal. On most days, such a matchup would garner an appreciable amount of publicity, but with Delpo-Djokovic and Nadal-Verdasco filling up the marquee in Rome, this showdown between two South American stars won’t generate a lot of ink or TV time. Nevertheless, Gonzalez–a quarterfinalist at last year’s French Open knows how to move on the red dirt. As long as he can calibrate his groundstrokes and construct points wisely, Gonzalez will be a dangerous claycourt foe against anyone not named Nadal. Speaking of Nadal: If Gonzalez does indeed make it past Monaco, he’ll play the Nadal-Verdasco winner in Saturday’s semis.

*******

WTA Tour Update – Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart, Germany

Round of 16 Scoreboard (Thursday’s Matches)

(1) Dinara Safina d. Daniela Hantuchova, 6-4, 6-2

(2) Elena Dementieva d. Agnes Szavay, 7-6 (4), 6-1

(3) Jelena Jankovic d. Sabine Lisicki, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3

(5) Svetlana Kuznetsova d. Na Li, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5

Marion Bartoli d. (7) Caroline Wozniacki, 7-6 (6), 6-4

(8) Agnieszka Radwanska d. Tszvetana Pironkova, 6-3, 6-3

Flavia Pennetta d. (6) Nadia Petrova, 6-2, 6-2

Friday’s Quarterfinal Matchups

(1) Safina vs. (8) Radwanska

(3) Jankovic vs. Pennetta

(5) Kuznetsova vs. Gisela Dulko (Dulko defeated No.4 Victoria Azarenka on Wednesday)

Bartoli vs. (2) Dementieva

Related Posts

• Seeds of Intrigue: Murray’s early exit in Rome has French Open implications
• Sizing up the semifinals: Three heavyweights and a Swiss guy
• Runaway Revenge: Murray gains payback against Verdasco, storms into semis

Murray, you see, didn’t merely lose his round-of-32 match on Wednesday to Argentina’s Juan Monaco, 1-6, 6-3, 7-5; the No. 4 player in the world missed out on a great chance to secure a coveted prize in the realm of men’s tennis.

Just what did Murray miss when he lost to Monaco, just one month after topping the South American at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami? Murray lost much more than a chance to win a clay title or earn a rematch with Rafael Nadal on the upcoming weekend; the most promising male tennis player without a Grand Slam trophy frittered away an opportunity to gain the No. 2 seed at the French Open, the year’s second major tournament.

Here’s a brief overview of the rankings battle at the top of the ATP Tour, which explains why Murray’s three-set failure in Rome rates as a significant event.

Before reaching the semis at Monte Carlo a week and a half ago, Murray had never gone past the round of 16 at any claycourt tournament. This means that under the ATP’s rankings system, Murray stood to gain a ton of points with a big spring swing on the red dirt of Europe. Under ATP guidelines, the points from one year’s event are added or subtracted based on the following year’s performance at the same tournament. For example, if a player made a 2008 semifinal at a Masters event, and then made the semis at that same tournament in 2009, the distributed point totals would basically stay the same (a slight difference would exist in this particular tennis season only because the ATP made a minor tweak in its point allotments; fundamentally, though, the basic principle remains intact).

Here’s a more precise look at the numbers involved in the rankings chase: This year’s Monte Carlo semifinal result gave Murray 360 rankings points, a 210-point increase over his 150-point (round of 16) showing at the same event in 2008. When Federer–a Monte Carlo finalist in 2008, good for 700 points–crashed out of the 2009 tournament in the round of 16, the world No. 2 registered just 90 points under the ATP’s adjusted numerical formula, which created a net loss of 610 points for Federer. Murray’s big gain and Fed’s far greater forfeiture of points suddenly created an almost-unthinkable reality: Strong showings at Rome and then Madrid (beginning on May 11) would enable Murray to overtake Federer for No. 2.

This loss to Juan Monaco is so damaging for Murray, then, because it put an abrupt halt to the Scot’s pronounced ascendancy. By losing in the round of 32 in Rome, Murray will accumulate just 45 points, a 25-point decline from his 70-point showing last year in Italy. Another semifinal would have allowed Murray to bank an additional 290 points in Rome, but this flameout means that Federer–a quarterfinalist last year (250 points)–can add to his points lead over Murray by making the semis this week at the Foro Italico. With a 6-4, 6-4 win on Wednesday over Croatia’s Ivo Karlovic, Federer punched a ticket into the round of 16, meaning that he’s only two wins from notching a points gain over Murray, and only one win from avoiding an appreciable point loss.

Murray has already announced that his next tournament will come at the Madrid Masters in mid-May. Murray could have opted to play in lower-tier tournaments to accumulate points before the French Open, but by going straight to Madrid, the Scot now has to thread the needle just to have a chance at surpassing Federer for second place on the ATP Tour. The Murray-Federer competition will be easier to dissect once Roger’s run in Rome is over, but one thing can safely be said: Murray will have to outdo Federer by at least one round in Madrid, and probably two, in order to have a realistic chance at No. 2.

Why all the fuss about this topic, you might ask? Isn’t Rafael Nadal the reigning No. 1 in men’s tennis, the man who deserves every accolade at the present time? Isn’t the battle for “Numero Uno” the only thing that matters? Yes, Rafa should be praised from the rooftops, and yes, being the very best is the only way a tennis player gets remembered. With that being said, the fight for No. 1 simply isn’t a source of debate or drama in the tennis community. In the short run, “Who’s Number Two?” is actually a more pressing question, for a surprisingly simple reason: Whoever holds the No. 2 ranking come May 25 of this year will be the second seed at the French Open.

While it’s true that all tennis players aspire to be No. 1, there’s more than a little value to being No. 2 as well. Murray and Federer–like any other male tennis players not named Nadal–desperately want to be the second seed at Roland Garros so they can reside in the other half of the draw and avoid Rafa until the final. The No. 3 player in the world might avoid Nadal in the French semis if the chips fall favorably, but the No. 2 man is guaranteed to miss the Spanish superpower until the final Sunday in Paris. Being No. 2 in tennis is rarely thought of as a huge prize, but in light of the Nadal juggernaut that’s emerged over the past year, it’s worth a lot of dollars (and rankings points) to avoid the mesmerizing Mallorcan until the last match of any tournament, especially a slam.

Andy Murray has been playing the best tennis of anyone other than Nadal over the past several months. Yet, in the course of one awful afternoon, the up-and-comer suddenly saw his path to a French Open final get a lot tougher. Round-of-32 matches at non-slam events are rarely cause for alarmist themes or pronounced emotional reactions, but this is the exception that proves the rule. Barring a Federer collapse, the Swiss legend–once on the precipice–will likely be able to preserve his No. 2 ranking for a few more weeks, and earn the right to avoid Rafa Nadal for as long as possible at the French Open.

OTHER NOTABLE SCORES FROM WEDNESDAY IN ROME:

Jurgen Melzer d. (7) Nikolay Davydenko, 7-5, 7-6 (5)

Richard Gasquet d. (9) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, 7-6 (2), 6-4

Paul-Henri Mathieu d. (11) David Ferrer, 6-3, 2-6, 6-2

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