Quick on the Draw: Breaking down the French Open brackets
The French Open draws are out, and a quick look at the singles brackets suggest that the two top seeds should stroll to the finals, and very likely capture the second Grand Slam event of the season.
Part I – Women’s Singles
Of the 128 women who will converge on Paris over the next 15 days, only one should feel particularly confident about her chances. Dinara Safina is a clear favorite on the WTA side of the French Open divide, not just because she’ll have the magic “(1)” next to her name in the draw sheet, but because the Russian has paid her dues in recent years. Safina lost last year’s Roland Garros final to Ana Ivanovic. She lost in the semis at the U.S. Open against Serena Williams. This year in Australia, the 23-year-old fell again to Serena, this time in the final. While Ana Ivanovic has slumped (partly due to injuries), and Serena’s fitness stands in question for the world’s claycourt major, Safina jumps out as the player with the best toolbox for the terre battue. Svetlana Kuznetsova is no slouch on clay, having made the 2006 French Open final and last year’s semis, but Safina has played at an even higher level on the red dirt of Europe. Even before looking at a draw sheet, one had to like Safina’s chances of making a deep run in France.
Now that the brackets have been filled, it’s even more apparent that the women’s tournament is Safina’s to lose.
The top half of the draw is incredibly barren, free of the snipers and floaters who can pick off a high seed. Safina’s potential fourth-round opponent is China’s Zheng Jie, who reached last year’s Wimbledon semifinals but has never gone beyond the fourth round in any other slam she’s entered. The second quarter of the top half (removed from Safina until the semifinals) doesn’t pose a single dangerous threat. Vera Zvonareva–who, on paper, would have been the favorite in her section–is almost certain to withdraw due to an injury, leaving Venus Williams, a weak claycourt performer, as the one top-5 seed in that corner of the draw. Essentially, there are 32 women who will find themselves scrambling madly for an unexpected ticket to the semifinals against Safina. Players like the little-known Sabine Lisicki and the photogenic Gisela Dulko have a chance to take advantage of a draw sent from heaven, and bolt into the final four on Thursday, June 4. All in all, the biggest potential matchup in the top half of the draw should take place in Tuesday’s quarterfinals, when Safina will likely stare down ninth-seeded Victoria Azarenka, one of the breakout players on the WTA Tour this season. Azarenka did capture the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami last month, but that was a hardcourt event. On clay, the 19-year-old from Belarus would possess a puncher’s chance against Safina, but probably not enough to topple the top seed.
In sharp contrast to the top half, the bottom half of the women’s draw is loaded. While Safina won’t meet with too much resistance beyond Azarenka, the other side of the WTA bracket created delicious duels for tennis aficionados. The fourth quarter of the draw might very well provide a tantalizing fourth-round encounter between Kuznetsova (the seventh seed) and 12th-rated Agnieszka Radwanska, but the real action comes in the third quarter, which should be called the “Bracket of Death.” In this hellaciously demanding portion of the women’s French Open, four elite players could very easily meet each other in the fourth round, making two mid-tournament matches feel like main-event semifinals.
The first potential fourth-round showstopper would pit fifth-seeded Jelena Jankovic against 10th-rated Caroline Wozniacki. Jankovic has reached the past two French Open semifinals, while Wozniacki fought her way into the top 10 of the WTA rankings by making three clay finals this Spring, including the just-concluded Madrid Open. Jankovic possesses big-match experience, but Wozniacki is the hotter player at the moment. Such a matchup would be entirely unpredictable yet highly competitive.
The second fourth-round showdown likely to emerge from the third quarter of the draw is a matchup between 13th-seeded Marion Bartoli and No.4 Elena Dementieva. The two women waged a fierce battle in the Stuttgart (Germany) quarterfinals on May 1, with Dementieva winning 6-3 in the third set. Neither player has attained a peak level of performance in 2009, but in the Grand Slam spotlight, a collision between two pros with upper-tier backhands should capture the attention of the French public.
All in all, the smart money definitely suggests that Safina should reach the final. Who will oppose her? Pick a name from a hat in the third quarter, but the Kuznetsova-Radwanska winner will have a great shot by virtue of inhabiting a less-crowded portion of the draw.
Part II – Men’s Singles
Whereas the women will engage in an intriguing and considerably wide-open battle for Grand Slam glory, the picture is far less complicated for the ATP Tour titans who will return to Roland Garros for another roll in the red dirt. The one big story of the men’s draw is the only story that really matters: Novak Djokovic–the second-best claycourter in the world at the present moment, but the No. 4 seed for this tournament–landed in Roger Federer’s half of the draw, which means that the Serbian superstar could face longtime nemesis Rafael Nadal in what would be a fabulous final. As a result of the Djokovic placement in Federer’s half, No. 3 seed Andy Murray will reside in Rafa’s part of the bracket.
Through the first five rounds of this seven-match marathon, none of the Big Four received terribly difficult paths to the semifinals. Murray–due to his mediocre history on clay–can’t quite be considered a favorite to reach the semis, but the Scot received the kind of draw that will give him a shot at a deep run. After a tough first-rounder against Argentina’s Juan Ignacio Chela, Murray won’t face another distinguished Grand Slam opponent until the quarterfinals against (in all likelihood) Fernando Gonzalez. Yes, a floater could ambush Great Britain’s best, but Murray could have been handed a much more perilous path through Paris.
As for the other three giants in men’s tennis, one should forget about an early-round upset. Nadal could face Fernando Verdasco in the quarterfinals, but given the way Rafa brushed aside his countryman in the quarterfinals of both Rome and Madrid, it’s hard to see the top seed being severely tested at Court Philippe Chatrier. Djokovic could face rising Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in the quarters, but the Djoker has owned Delpo in head-to-head meetings, winning all seven sets in the three matches contested by the two men. Federer, for his part, might have a tricky third-rounder against Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu, but if the Swiss can escape that Davis Cup-style scenario on French soil, the No. 2 seed should coast through the fourth round and the quarters.
In an ideal world, the release of a Grand Slam draw would provoke intense and prolonged discussions about every round of the tournament. This year, however, the men’s French Open just doesn’t work out that way. It’s Rafa, the Djoker, and the Fed Express, with everyone else just along for the ride. The early rounds shouldn’t witness a lot of breathtaking battles, but when the semis and finals come around, the star power will emerge. A Djokovic-Federer fistfight in the semis will set the stage for a heavily-hyped final, with the winner facing Nadal on Sunday, June 7. There are no guarantees in life, but in the world of men’s tennis, it’s awfully difficult to bet against a final involving Nadal and another superstar from Serbia or Switzerland.
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