Later this week, the draw for the 2009 French Open will be announced in Paris, but before the brackets are made public, here’s an early look ahead at the year’s claycourt major.

Part I – Men’s Preview

As is the case in any sport, matchups matter. With respect to this year’s 15-day thrill ride at Roland Garros, it’s the men who will be particularly attuned to the ways in which the field of 128 is formed. Before the pairings are set in stone, one question towers over all others at the end of the European clay season: Which half of the men’s draw will Novak Djokovic inhabit?

There’s simply no way to avoid or overstate the significance of the Serb’s location in the men’s field. While Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have secured spots in the opposite halves of the draw, fourth-ranked Djokovic and world No. 3 Andy Murray don’t know where they’ll land. Murray might have the nicer number attached to his name when the draw sheets become a matter of public record, but Djokovic has clearly stamped himself as the second-best claycourter on planet Earth. The Belgrade native might not have snared a Masters 1000 title over the past six weeks, but Djokovic proved to be the second most consistent performer after the reigning Rafa.

While Nadal won three clay events in the pre-French Open portion of the ATP calendar, Djokovic earned the right to stare down the Mallorcan maestro at nearly every stop on the tour. By socking a pair of Swiss standouts–Stanislas Wawrinka and then Federer–in a pair of Masters semifinals, Djokovic advanced to the finals in both Monte Carlo and Rome. Nadal did prevail in those two head-to-head title tilts, but Djokovic battled hard enough to command the respect of his Spanish rival.

Then came Madrid.

Once again–and for the ninth time in as many tries–Djokovic was not able to notch a victory over the King of Clay, but the world No. 4 displayed the full extent of his will and skill in extending Nadal to three sets–two of them decided by razor-close tiebreaks. After losing to Nadal in 4 hours and 2 minutes, and battling the world No. 1 with more gumption and grit than anyone else on tour, Novak Djokovic deserved to be seen as the new No. 2 on red dirt. Federer surely played well in the following day’s Madrid Open final against Nadal, but even the Swiss superstar would acknowledge that Rafa was softened up by a Serbian stalwart the day before. If one man has a reasonably good chance of preventing Nadal from winning his fifth consecutive French Open title this year, it’s Djokovic… not Roger Federer.

With the past as prelude, the matter of Djokovic’s place on the draw sheet is hugely consequential, especially since Murray–the other member of the Big Four in men’s tennis–did not show a great deal of staying power on the terre battue. While Djokovic played deep into each claycourt tournament he entered, Murray fell off the radar screen after an encouraging semifinal showing in Monte Carlo. The 22-year-old Scot lost in the second round at Rome (to Juan Monaco) and then fell in the Madrid quarterfinals to Juan Martin del Potro. Murray has owned Federer over the past several months, and he took down Djokovic in the Miami final on April 5, but those successes came on hardcourts, not clay. Murray will be hard-pressed to reach the semifinals at Roland Garros, and even if he does, he’ll come in as the underdog against anyone he plays. On cement or grass, Murray rates as a superior player to Djokovic, but on the terre battue, it’s a very different story. That’s why Nadal and Federer would love to have Murray in their half of the draw, in the event that the Big Four all advance to the semifinal round.

It’s fair to say–given Djokovic’s clay credentials and his penchant for giving Rafa a good run on the dirt–that Federer’s hopes for an elusive French Open title and a 14th career Grand Slam might rest on the nature of the draw. If Djokovic is placed in Rafa’s half, and can spring a titanic upset in the semis, Federer–who has never lost a slam final to anyone other than Nadal–could potentially play the Djoker in the final. While Djokovic has dusted Federer in each of their last two meetings, the unique nature of a slam final–witnessed in 2007, when Federer overcame a nerve-addled Djokovic to win the U.S. Open crown–would provide a different dynamic… and an opponent other than Federer’s supreme nemesis from Spain.

The men’s tournament is clearly Nadal’s to lose. It would be surprising if Rafa lost more than one set on his way to a fifth straight title at Roland Garros, where the best player in the world is a perfect 28-0. However, if any intrigue is to enter court Philippe Chatrier in the coming 15 days, it will be supplied by Novak Djokovic, and his particular place in the soon-to-be-announced draw.

Part II – Women’s Preview

For the women, the nature of this event is appreciably different. While Nadal enjoys a hammer-lock grip on the men’s game, the WTA field should create a fairly wide-open tournament, with only one possible exception: Dinara Safina.

Sports often requires high-level competitors to slowly climb the mountain before reaching the absolute peak. Safina is the woman who is experiencing such a progression more than anyone else. Last year marked the Russian’s breakout season, and no event illustrated the newfound confidence of Marat Safin’s sister more than the 2008 French Open. Safina stood within a game of losing in two consecutive matches–to Maria Sharapova in the fourth round, and against Elena Dementieva in the quarterfinals–but somehow escaped to reach the final four. After dispatching Svetlana Kuznetsova in the semis, Safina found herself in the final against Ana Ivanovic, the photogenic Serb who, interestingly enough, lost the 2007 French final to Justine Henin. Ivanovic’s hard-earned wisdom paid off in the Grand Slam spotlight against a clearly nervous Safina, who took a while to find her footing and could never fully recover. Safina might have lost her first slam final, but as another French Open comes across the tennis calendar, the world No. 1 is poised to go all the way, just as Ivanovic did a year ago.

Safina isn’t the heavy favorite the way Nadal is on the men’s side, but it would be accurate to say that the 23-year-old is a clear favorite… just not by a huge margin. Serena Williams’s injury troubles, Sharapova’s rust, Kuznetsova’s balky brain, and Ivanovic’s recent loss of form all combine to make Safina the best, most logical choice in Paris, but if someone else moves through a cushy section of the draw, bolts to the Saturday final (on June 6), and steals the title, it won’t come as a huge shock. In the three Grand Slam tournaments not contested on clay, the Williams sisters–Venus at Wimbledon, Serena on the cement of Australia and the United States–will almost always be favored. On clay, however, the Williamses haven’t proven that they can regularly make their way through six matches and arrive in the finals. Women’s tennis offers quality depth, but not the mind-numbing consistency displayed by Federer and Nadal during their two-man domination of the men’s game. If Dinara Safina wins the French Open, conventional wisdom will be affirmed. Be forewarned, however: When women’s tennis is being discussed, embrace conventional wisdom at your peril.

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