A thrilling 2008 season filled with surprises, a new No. 1, and arguably the best tennis match of all time has come and gone, but not for the eight players and two countries contesting this weekend’s Davis Cup final. It’s Spain vs. Argentina for the title. The time for controversy and not-so-good off the court news leading up to the all-important tie is now over. Examples: Argentina took almost forever in determining where to host the event and David Nalbandian even threatened not to play depending on the outcome of the decision. Once that issue was resolved, Rafael Nadal’s knee tendinitis stole all the headlines. But this stories are things of the past (for the most part). At long last, the final is just days away and Argentina and Spain can get down to business and settle things on the court.

The Argentines have two main advantages. One, they have home-court advantage and have chosen to host the proceedings on the indoor courts of Mar del Plata. Second, Spain will be without Nadal, the top-ranked player in men’s tennis. Nadal’s tendinitis forced him out of his Masters Series Paris semifinal match against Nikolay Davydenko and also prevented him from playing the Masters Cup. He had hoped not going to Shanghai would allow him to be ready for the Davis Cup final, but that did not turn out to be the case. Tommy Robredo has been on vacation and decided that he would not be able to help the team, so the Spanish squad turned to unheralded Marcel Granollers, who was a surprise title winner in Houston this spring, as Nadal’s replacement. That’s not particularly what I would consider an even swap.

Granollers joins David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, and Fernando Verdasco as the Spanish foursome. Argentina is countering with Jose Acasuso, Agustin Calleri, David Nalbandian, Juan Martin del Potro.

On paper, Argentina looks like a heavy favorite, especially with the home court and surface advantages. As a result, Spanish captain Emilio Sanchez is going to concoct some kind of borderline miracle in order to pull off an upset over the Argentines. Because the final is on indoor hard courts (Argentina chose that surface to keep the Spaniards off their beloved clay), Lopez will probably get the nod in singles on both Friday and Sunday. He is one of the few Spaniards in history who actually prefers hard courts to clay, which he does due to his booming serve and prowess at the net. Furthermore, Ferrer has been mired in a dismal slump ever since the start of the U.S. Open Series. Verdasco has been up-and-down in 2008, but he has not enough to make Sanchez’s decision between Verdasco and Ferrer a difficult one.

Granollers is an accomplished doubles player, but it might not be in Spain’s best interest to break up the Lopez-Verdasco duo. Lopez and Verdasco are not only stalwarts of Davis Cup doubles, but they also play regularly in ATP tournaments. If one of them performs at a sub-par level during Friday’s singles matches, however, Granollers could get the call.

Argentine captain Alberto Mancini should have fewer decisions to make. Nalbandian is phenomenal indoors (he won both Masters Series titles in Madrid and Paris last year) and he recently resurrected his game by reaching the Paris final, where he lost to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Del Potro is not quite as on fire as he was this summer when he won four straight events in between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, but the 6’6’’ 20-year-old is still playing well. Nalbandian and Del Potro will be the go-to guys in singles on both Friday and Sunday. Argentina will be favored in all four singles rubbers, and all they need is three points, so there is probably no reason to put Nalbandian or Del Potro in doubles. Calleri and Acasuso are more than capable of at least being competitive in the doubles rubber, but they will be underdogs against whatever combination the Spaniards throw out there among Granollers, Verdasco, and Lopez. Still, it will be of little importance as long as the Argentines take care of business in singles.

For now, the Friday singles should be expected to feature Lopez and Ferrer for Spain and Nalbandian and Del Potro for Argentine, in no particular order (and the order has yet to be determined). Regardless of the combination, Argentina should have a decisive 2-0 lead after one day of play.

It’s hard to predict a specific score for a Davis Cup tie since 3-2 could mean a thrilling tie that came down to the fifth rubber just as it could mean one team went up 3-0 before losing to meaningless singles matches on Sunday. Nonetheless, I’ll take the host Argentines to take it four rubbers to one, clinching it in the first of the two reverse singles matches.

Related Articles