Roger Federer will play the feature match on Day 1 of the 2009 Australian Open; at night under the lights on Rod Laver Arena. His opponent will be Andreas Seppi, whom Federer has already defeated once this season in
Doha. Overall they have met three times and Federer owns the head-to-head series 3-0, including 1-0 on hard courts.

Seppi’s chances of breaking though against the world No. 2 at Melbourne Park are slim, but not impossible. The Italian is ranked 35th in the world, almost good enough for a seed at the Australian Open. Although he has never made it past the third round of any Grand Slam, Seppi does have some big match experience. He reached the third round of both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last season and also enjoyed a semifinal performance at the Masters Series Hamburg. Seppi has a 2-3 lifetime match record at the Australian Open and has never made it past the second round.

It’s not the worst time to be playing Federer, as the Swiss is no longer completely dominating men’s tennis. Then again, it is not a good time to be playing Federer, either. The three-time Aussie Open champion lost to Andy Murray in the Doha title match earlier this year—his third straight loss to Murray—but bounced back last week to win the Kooyong Classic exhibition. Yes it was just an exhibition, but it will still give Federer the confidence he needs heading into the season’s first Grand Slam. Federer won titles in Melbourne in 2004, 2006, and 2007, but was unseated by Novak Djokovic last year, going down in a semifinal upset.

Odds are his 2009 run won’t get stopped by Seppi before it even starts. Seppi does not really own a big weapon; instead he is content to counter-punch. Nor will he hurt Federer with big serves. His only chance is to keep balls in play and hope his opponent is having an extreme off-day. Federer will be able to dictate play with his serve and heavy groundstrokes, and he should be able to dictate proceedings even when Seppi is serving, because the Italian’s serve is not formidable. Seppi is a solid player, but it would be surprising if Federer drops a set; Federer in three is the pick.

Federer is surely not looking ahead, but we can. If he advances, he will meet either Carlos Moya or qualifier Evgeny Korolev in the second round.

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