With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal no longer completely dominating men’s tennis, it looks like the Australian Open (men’s singles) is more wide open that it has ever been this decade. Novak Djokovic is the defending champion and Andy Murray, who finished runner-up to Federer at the U.S. Open, has been the hottest player on the ATP Tour recently.

Juan Martin Del Potro and Gilles Simon have also broken into the top ten and are looking like contenders, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has the talent to make yet another run to the Melbourne title match. Gael Monfils upset Nadal in Doha, Qatar earlier this season, up-and-comer Ernests Gulbis defeated Djokovic in Brisbane, rising star Marin Cilic won an ATP title in Chennai, and American youngster Sam Querrey finished runner-up to Del Potro in Auckland. The list could go on and on. The point is plenty of players could be making noise throughout the next fortnight at Melbourne Park.

Whose chances were aided with the luck of the draw? Which players were dealt a tough road to glory? Let’s take look.

It used to be that Nadal and Federer wanted to avoid Djokovic in his half of a Grand Slam draw, but now that Murray has emerged, there is no way to escape an extremely tough potential semifinal showdown. This time the draw, which was revealed on Friday, put the in-form Murray in Nadal’s half while Djokovic fell in Federer’s section. Nadal cannot be enthused about the prospect of playing Murray in the semifinals; after all, the world No. 1 lost to Murray at the same stage in last year’s U.S. Open. Despite that relatively bad luck of the draw, Nadal’s own quarter is actually not too scary. He’ll have no problem advancing through the first two rounds, at which point his nearest seeded player and potential third-round opponent is Dmitry Tursunov, who has done nothing since the 2008 U.S. Open Series. Richard Gasquet, Fernando Gonzalez, and Lleyton Hewitt are potential fourth-round opponents for the Spaniard. They are talented, but an upset of Nadal by any of those three would be nothing less than shocking. Things could get a bit more interesting in the quarterfinals, where the most likely contenders are Gilles Simon, who stunned Nadal last fall in Madrid, and another Frenchman in Gael Monfils, who recently denied Nadal in Doha, Qatar. Also keep an eye out for big servers Ivo Karlovic and Mario Ancic, and dangerous unseeded threat Tommy Haas in this portion of the field.

Lleyton Hewitt vs. Fernando Gonzalez. In fact this is probably the most enticing opening-round encounter of the entire tournament. In the eyes of Australian fans, that’s not even a question. Hewitt is still their highest-ranked player at No. 74 in the world and their best hope to do damage Down Under. Of course, that says more about the state of Australian tennis than it does about Hewitt. The two-time Grand Slam champion limped through a difficult 2008 campaign with various injuries, but he is off to a decent start this season after reaching the quarterfinals in Sydney. Gonzalez, the No. 13 seed, is an extremely dangerous opponent, but you never know what you are going to get from him. He is a former Aussie Open runner-up (2007) and he won the silver medal at the Beijing Olympics last summer. However, Gonzalez slumped throughout most of the indoor season and he has not played yet in 2009. A season-opening match against Hewitt is a tough proposition, as the former world No. 1 almost always makes his opponents work hard to win, by minimizing unforced errors. Whatever happens in this one, it’s going to happen with plenty of drama and emotion.

Murray’s quarter is one big wild card. Other than Murray being the clear favorite, it’s impossible to forecast what we’re going to see from it. The quarter is loaded with talent (led by Murray), but also littered with question marks (aside from Murray). Tsonga finished runner-up at last year’s Australian Open, but the oft-injured French star pulled out of Sydney last week with a back problem. Radek Stepanek, who looked great in winning the Brisbane title earlier this month, also pulled out of Sydney. 19-year-old Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori reached the fourth round of the 2008 U.S. Open, so he clearly has Grand Slam potential. But—you guessed it—he also withdrew from Sydney during a first-round match. Also in this quarter of the Aussie Open draw are talented ball-bashers James Blake and Ernests Gulbis. When they are hot, both men can beat anyone in tennis, but when they are off, they look like they don’t belong in the top 100. What will we see from them this week? The bottom line is that while Murray is surrounded by danger, he’s the only sure-thing in an otherwise erratic section of the field.

There’s no can’t miss first-round matchup in this section like Hewitt vs. Gonzalez, but keep an eye on Nishikori vs. Jurgen Melzer. Assuming Nishikori is 100 percent, this will present an intriguing contrast in styles. Nishikori is content to keep balls in play and slug it out from the baseline, while Melzer likes to eventually get into the net following his strong lefty serve. One of the biggest surprises in 2008 was Nishikori’s ATP title in Delray Beach, which he captured after having to qualify for the main draw. Always a force on hard courts, Melzer led Murray two sets to love in the third round of last year’s U.S. Open before squandering the lead.

In terms of who will advance to the semifinals, Djokovic’s quarter of the draw is the most up for grabs. It’s not packed with talent, but it looks evenly-matched and that should make for an extremely interesting week of tennis. It used to be—when men’s tennis had a “Big 3” rather than a “Big 4”—that Nikolay Davydenko’s so-called quarter of the draw was always the weakest link of a Grand Slam. Now, however, it looks like Djokovic’s section is the one that leaves a little bit to be desired. Andy Roddick is there, but he has been surpassed in both talent and likability by a whole host of players. David Nalbandian is also there, and while he can get hot at any moment, he is a liable to a meltdown (not unlike last year’s Aussie Open blowout loss to Juan Carlos Ferrero). Marcos Baghdatis has charisma going for him and history behind him (2006 runner-up), but he could barely stay on the tennis court in 2008 due to injuries. At a time when Djokovic was in need of a favorable draw, it looks like he got it.

The quarter could open with a bang in the form of Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. Jarkko Nieminen. It won’t garner much attention, but it should result in rock-solid tennis. These two consistent baseliners seem to be in form this year, as well. Mathieu reached the Brisbane semifinals while Nieminen stunned Djokovic in the Sydney semis before losing to Nalbandian. If you’re a fan of five-set wars, this is probably the one to watch. Also keep an eye on Julien Benneteau vs. Marcos Baghdatis, Sam Querrey vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Fabrice Santoro vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero.

If Djokovic got a good draw, Federer got one of the best draws imaginable. Aside from Federer himself, this section of the field is without question the weakest. Del Potro is dangerous—he caught fire last summer with four straight ATP titles and is already picking up where he left off with an impressive showing in Auckland—but he has never made it past the quarterfinals of a major. The only players in this quarter who have made it past that stage of a Grand Slam are former slam champions Marat Safin and Carlos Moya—who are both currently in slumps—in addition to David Ferrer, who has fallen out of the Top 10 after an impressive 2007 campaign, and Robby Ginepri, whose run to the 2005 U.S. Open semifinals proved to be an aberration. Stanislas Wawrinka, Federer’s gold medal-winning partner, is talented but was nothing short of dreadful throughout the second half of 2008. Tomas Berdych looks like he might never live up to his potential, and he certainly does not have the mental fortitude to be a threat in a slam anytime soon. The only thing standing between Federer and the Aussie Open semis is Federer himself. Unfortunately for the Swiss, given his current form that could be enough to stop him.

Perhaps the most intriguing opener is Tomas Berdych vs. Robby Ginepri. Sure it isn’t an absolute must-see, but it could turn out to be a thriller. Both men are capable of producing awesome tennis; their mental games, however, prevent them from doing so more often than not. Berdych also played an underdog American opponent in the first round of the last Grand Slam—Sam Querrey at the 2008 U.S. Open—and lost badly. Will Ginepri also be able to pull off what would be considered a surprise? It probably all depends on Berdych…and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for Ginepri.

Well, there you have it. The draw has left us with the following potential semifinals: Nadal vs. Murray in what would be a rematch of the 2008 U.S. Open semis, and Federer vs. Djokovic in what would be a rematch of the 2008 Aussie Open semis. If all four make it that far, what a final weekend it will be in Melbourne!

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