Novak Djokovic Favourite for 2011 US Open

Novak Djokovic is having a career in 2011. His play has been so inspired that he has distanced himself from long-time rivals Federer, Nadal and Murray. Djokovic, a prohibitive 5/4 favorite, lost in the finals in Cincinnati to Andy Murray. He has only lost one other match this year and that was to Roger Federer in Paris.

Djokovic’s 2011 resume shows 57 wins against just two losses. This year, he has amassed 9 titles, earned more than $8.3 million and solidified his number one ranking by not losing to Rafael Nadal once this year. His new commitment to fitness has made him look like the best conditioned athlete on the men’s tour. In his matches against Rafa Nadal (4/1), it was Nadal who seemed exhausted. This is quite a role reversal and a transition that Rafa hopes to overcome.

In Djokovic’s quarterfinal bracket, he will have to play through Nicolas Davydenko (150/1), Alexander Dolgopolov (125/1), Richard Gasquet (100/1) in the third round and either Gael Monfils (125/1), Janko Tipsarevic (200/1) or Tomas Berdych (40/1) to reach the semis.

Monfils, the seven seed, is streaky and cannot hold up against Djokovic. The biggest threat in the bracket is Berdych, who played well in Cincinnati, and has the hard court game to take Djokovic to extra sets. Look for Djoko to arrive in the semis.

The semis should be a great battle including one of the two people to defeat Djokovic this year, Roger Federer (5/1). However, the third seeded Federer bracket is filled with potential potholes. 19th seed Fernando Verdasco (125/1) had Nadal on the ropes at Cincinnati and is in form. Jo Willy Tsonga (33/1) has the game to beat anyone on a given day. Marin Cilic (100/1) has had a tough year but if he rebounds, he presents a problem. Radek Stepanek (300/1) is capable of the upset but 8th seed Mardy Fish (25/1) will have the home crowd in a frenzy and is playing with purpose. If Federer earns the right to play Djoko, he will have paid a heavy price.

Second seed Rafa Nadal is addressing this U.S. Open with purpose. He has expressed frustration with his game plan and execution against Djokovic. Nadal enjoys placement in a quarter bracket that should present no problems. Jurgen Melzer (200/1) Ivan Ljubicic (200/1), Nicolas Almagro (200/1), Mikhail Youzhny (150/1) are all potential opponents. David Federer (5/1) is seeded fifth and could well meet his countryman in the quarters.

This bracket has a subplot. 21st seed Andy Roddick (66/1) is on friendly turf and if he can serve with his usual effectiveness, the American can go deep into the tournament. Firs he will have to down another American Michael Russell and overcome Ferrer in the round of sixteen. Roddick is sure to have vocal support from the New York crowd.

4th seeded Andy Murray (5/1) defeated an exhausted Djokovic in Cincinnati. It was a timely upset for the Scotsman. His road to the semis includes marching through Feliciano Lopez (200/1), Juan Ignacio Lopez (200/1), Stan Wawrinka (150/1), and fifth seed Robin Soderling (40/1).

Murray’s bracket also features two other big game players; America’s John Isner (100/1), a winner this week in Winston Salem, and former U.S. Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro (12/1). Both of these power players can pull an upset in the hard courts of Flushing Meadows.

We see the semifinals pairing Djokovic against Federer. On page two, it is hard not to play the chalk. Murray should meet Nadal. We think Djokovic will topple Federer in a tough match. We also like Murray to knock off Nadal. In the finals, Murray downs Djokovic to claim the 2011 U.S. Open title.

There are plenty of other scenarios but the big four are seeded that way for a reason and as hot as Djokovic is, Murray is hungry for a win that escaped him earlier in the year. For Djoko, a U.S. Open title would give the Serb three Grand Slam titles this season.

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